This is an obvious logical fallacy, yet the argument is surprisingly common from some who think of themselves as skeptics. They are, in fact, “pseudoskeptics,” because they are selectively skeptical, rejecting the ideas of others while swallowing their own whole.
We never have complete control over the circumstances of life. What works one time may not work another. Walking down the street can be a gamble; after all, we could get hit by a bus. Yet if we live as if we must avoid all danger, we die in a state of constriction and loss.
Ideally, we learn to assess risk and to make choices that recognize risk and consider possible returns. If the return is high, we may take higher risks. That’s all rational game theory.
So if I get hit by a bus, does that mean it was a mistake to walk down the street? Perhaps it was a mistake to be inadequately careful, but no amount of care can avoid all risk. The risk is small, so normal response to it is reasonable caution. Continue reading “No payoff = bad bet?”
Unfortunately it repeats some common tropes that can make an approach to understanding cold fusion more difficult (as they did from the beginning). Rather than take this apart, what would be a better introduction? I’m using a recent post by Jed Rothwell as a seed that may create one.
So how do we establish that LENR has been replicated? We are surrounded by hyperskeptics, whom I have no real interest in appeasing because their standard, if it were applied to any other branch of science, would send us back to some kind of stone age.
I recommend you ignore the hyperskeptics. I engage with them here only to keep in practices, as an exercise in rhetorical target practice.
Great excuse! Someone is wrong on the internet! There goes countless hours. This is useful if one actually hones literary and rhetorical skills, but, too often, there is no genuine feedback, no objective standard or measure of success. What, indeed, is success? What I’ve gained from the engagement is familiarity with the issues. It enables me to speak cogently, off-the-cuff. We’ll see how effective that is!
We are not, however, “surrounded by hyperskeptics.” Where does Kev live that he thinks this way? Planet Rossi? If someone new is not skeptical about cold fusion, they don’t understand the problem.
I recommend you concentrate instead on trying to persuade open minded people who are sincerely interested in the subject. There are apparently a large number of such people. Although the numbers seem to be dropping off. See:
Color mind boggled. “Winning” is generally a highly subjective judgment, unless there are clear standards, which, in this matter, there are not. Someone may claim that the issue is clear, by either proposing or assuming a specific standard, which is, in this case, post-facto. The “case,” is, of course, Who Won in Rossi v. Darden? or Who Won by Reaching Settlement?
The announcement refers to a discussion on the Vortex mailing list. I’ll get to that. On-line discussion groups have long ignored the processes of deliberative democracy. A question is asked, sometimes, but the exact form of the question is well-known to have a massive influence on answers. A question is asked and then people answer it, often arguing for their answer. Very normal in on-line fora. Continue reading “Who won?”
Today I uploaded consolidated deposition files for Penon and three for Rossi (for himself, for Lenoardo, and for JMP). These files were prepared by Bruce H. We have many extracts from the depositions, and we must maintain them because they are cited by specific case exhibit and pdf page, in our study documents. But if someone just wants to read as much as possible of a deposition, these consolidated files make it far easier. There are many more to be done, but Bruce is a pioneer, and I want to take this occasion to acknowledge that, and the help of all those who have made and are making this site useful.
All deposition exhibits (and the consolidated files) are listed on RvD: Depositions
Simple. Follow Alan Fletcher’s example. He hasn’t done the testing yet, he claims, but when I saw Alan’s announcement of the pool, my immediate reaction was “Ew! WTF?”
Missing in action: self-critique. What could be a problem with this? How could this pool create doubt regarding the work Alan has undertaken?
This obvious lack of self-critique is a prominent feature of the models of Rossi behavior that I use. Rossi seems totally naive about how his work would appear to others. If he is criticized, they are snakes and clowns. A simple desire to verify is full-on grounds for exclusion. Jed Rothwell wanted to bring his own measuring equipment to a demonstration (such as thermometers.) No, visit not allowed. Rothwell at that time was a strong supporter of Rossi. He didn’t take it personally, remained supportive, because he had friends who privately told him they had witnessed impressive tests, and he trusted them.
Fletcher seems to think that nobody could question his honesty. It is not that I’m questioning it, and the most likely source of mistrust would be from Planet Rossi. And I will explain below what I suspect may happen.
On LENR Forum, SSC has written extensive nonsense about alleged Cherokee misrepresentations on an SEC form filed earlier this year, and Sifferkoll also covered this.
What these claims are actually demonstrating is major ignorance about business, and especially corporate business. They don’t tunderstand what they read, but cite it as proof of something or other. See the page linked for citations and details.
I have claimed that some kinds of posting, with reckless disregard for fact, is trolling, even if “sincere.” The claims have no purpose any more, other than simply continuing the basic theme of trolls: “I’m right, you are wrong.”
What ensues when we speak of the devil has long been expected. Problem with the devil: Qur’an: he speaks to you from where you do not recognize him.
I find a gloss for that obvious: he speaks through our friends and most of all through our own internal conversation, which most people have not learned to suspect is a pack of lies, in spite of ancient warnings about the self. (Actually, like the most skilled lies, it is mixed with a kind of truth, which helps it hide more effectively.)
So on LENR Forum, IH Fanboy has been writing a series of posts that continue his Rossi Good IH Bad theme. IHFB is remarkable. Before the trial, he was expecting that IH would unfortunately kick Rossi’s ass because of all the Rossi “mistakes” — or we could just say “lies.” Juries don’t like lies. It’s a simple story to communicate. if there is probative evidence. Continue reading “Speak of the devil”
Chapman definitely lives on Planet Rossi, but here shows a willingness to recognize that something is missing. That is a cause for hope (when this happens on any “side.”) It’s worth looking at. So his report and my comments are below. I’d much rather respond here than there, though I will probably toss a nickel or two in that pond. Continue reading “Hope for Planet Rossi”
Whatever, it begins with F. If a reader knows me, the reader will expect that, every time, I’ll vote for Fun. Yay, Rossi! Endless generation of excess fun!
Okay, was it fun for IH? I recommend they declare that. Otherwise, $20 million down the tubes, a stupid mistake, start to finish. But fun is irrevocable, if we say so. Life is fun, and then we die. Does that change “life is fun”? I say not.
Planet Rossi has been loudly claiming that this was the height of stupidity, so bad that when Lukacs pointed it out to Pace and Bell, IH attorneys, before the evidentiary phase of the trial was to begin on Day 4, realized that their entire case was utterly hopeless and laid down and played dead.
Those folks on LENR forum decided to actually obtain one of these pumps and actually measure the flow rate. What? And give up all the fun of arguing endlessly and firmly proclaiming that the “other side” is not just wrong, but insanely-stupid-wrong and someone-must-be-paying-them?
The interview includes a link to a “settlement agreement” between all parties to Rossi v. Darden, stating “undisclosed source.” The agreement is unsigned and undated, it’s a draft, then. I have made inquiries to determine if this is legitimate and accurate. But here is the settlement-agreement-draft.
[Update: I am informed privately that the Lewan draft is probably correct, and, as well, that it was eventually signed by all parties. There has been, to my knowledge, no joint announcement, only the eventual entry of a joint stipulation which included nothing about the agreement other than showing the joint request for dismissal with prejudice.]
In the Lewan interview, Rossi makes many statements that, from the clear evidence in the case, are, at the very least, misleading. Lewan’s summaries are, themselves, misleading. (Lewan has often shown that he didn’t understand the case, and is continuing that.) I will cover that interview in detail. There are two other documents hosted on the Lewan blog linked from the interview, they are Rossi handwritten notes, full of words like “stupidities” and “middle school math.” Classic Rossi. Continue reading “Settlement Agreement?”
Unfortunately. The flow of libelous posts on JONP had stopped but, sad to say, it seems to have started up again. Sifferkoll is echoed on JONP.
This is long and detailed. Unless a reader is interested in the massive flabber generated on Sifferkoll’s blog, and implications, including evidence that Sifferkoll is being directly deceptive, I suggest skipping this. Continue reading “The drama continues”
We have come across various animals in our wanderings, and humans and groups of humans often have totems.
Some time back, I proposed the Macaw as the official animal of Planet Rossi (photo credit is on that page):
Aren’t they beautiful? If you think of “Planet Rossi” as an insult, I suggest reconsidering this. As I say on that page, “Be Proud,” which I recommend to nearly everyone. “Planet Rossi” is not an insult in itself, it simply means the collection of people who share some coherence around Andrea Rossi and his work. While there are some common characteristics, which I go over in that post, people are diverse on Planet Rossi just as they are elsewhere. If someone identified or identifying as Planet Rossi is Stupid, that doesn’t make you Stupid. Really, it’s up to you.
I have no doubt that Frank Acland has a residence on Planet Rossi. Yet I’m happy to consider him a friend, though I’ve never met him. Which Macaw is he? The middle one? He gets to choose and he can choose a different totem if he wants. I’m just making some suggestions. In a list of Native American Totems, the Parrot has the qualities: Communication, beauty, guide for wisdom, mockery, language, prophecy, verbosity, promise.
As some know, I was very active on WikiMedia Foundation sites for quite some time, often defending users under attack by factions, and at one point, some bully called me a “Rat.” I love rats, my daughter had five at one point, and one is still alive and lives in my office, near my desk. So I grabbed an image for my user page on Beta Wikiversity.
I’m a Muslim and don’t drink alcohol, but dreaming about anything is lawful, and Alby looks like he’s having fun. The rat totem qualities: Fertility, stealth, scavenging, intelligence, enjoys luxury, intelligent, wealth, success, drive. Hey, I have seven children. No wonder.
Now, there are other creatures in our neighborhood. Here is one. Guess whom I’m recommending adopt this totem:
On my bus trip home from Washington, DC (where I went from Miami), I had plenty of time to read and write comments on E-cat World, where there are many claiming the settlement of the case means that Rossi technology is real. On the other side, here and elsewhere, some are complaining that it is tragic that Rossi v. Darden did not go to trial, because then Rossi would be prevented from “fleecing more sheep,” or the like. Yet all a verdict in that case would have established, almost certainly, was some kind of fraud, on someone’s part, and fraud may have nothing to do with underlying reality. It shows that a judge and/or jury was convinced, which can be a matter of truth, or a matter or skill or lack of skill on the part of attorneys. And then arguments may continue forever.