Simon again. Quoted in full, my comments in indented italics.
The only evidence that points to the 1MW having been produced is the ERV report, with the quantity of water turned to steam and the measured temperature of that steam. As has been noted many times, the data we’ve heard about doesn’t seem consistent with what might reasonably be expected as a set of real measurements, but it is nevertheless the data that exists.
It exists in a sense, yes. That is, there is a report, incompletely presented, just the data tables without explanatory material, and without attestation of any kind.
Countered to that is the soft evidence that there doesn’t seem to have been any product from J-M Products that would have paid for the power bill, and there seems to have been no transport of raw materials or finished product in and out of the site, and that there were no employees or contractors of J-M Products in the locked room overseeing such a process – JMP seems to have just one part-time employee and one MD who also functioned as CEO, Treasurer, etc..
This is circumstantial evidence that in a civil case may have high probity, unless factual evidence to the contrary can be shown. “MD” probably meant “JD,” i.e., a lawyer, Johnson. I think Dewey has asserted that Rossi paid the electric bill. (IH subpoenaed Florida Power & Light records and we can be sure they also requested and obtained bank records. This kind of stuff could be hidden, but it would have been a lot of work and it appears that it was not anticipated, when the fraud was set up, that there would be judicial inquiry, so it was clumsy.) I assume that Rossi also would have paid the $1000 per day to IH, had IH invoiced. $300,000, small price to pay to win $89 million. Rossi appears to have been paying all JMP bills, including employment taxes. It’s pretty obvious what was going on. If anyone questions this, I’ll put in links.
There is also Jed’s claim (not yet in evidence at court) that an IR survey of the site was done by IH which did not see a heat-plume consistent with 1MW, and that there seems to have been no attempt by Rossi to deal with getting rid of that 1MW by other means such as down the drains as cooling water. There was at some point a reference (I can’t remember by whom) that the locked room was not uncomfortably hot.
I think that the IR survey information came from Dewey. It’s quite plausible, once IH recognized that Rossi really was going to try to pull the “GPT” trick. It’s easy to do. Routinely, marijuana growers have been busted by helicopter IR surveys, seeing the tens of kilowatts of power dissipated by grow-lights. A megawatt should be extremely visible. I think that Dewey mentioned that this would be visible from space, and that’s a hint that the IR survey may have simply consisted of looking for IR satellite data, which exists.
Though these points are not hard evidence yet, I find them convincing enough that it seems certain that the ERV report is bad data, and that the output power cannot have been substantially greater than the input power, and that this was known by Rossi before he started the Doral test.
This is not weak evidence, it is direct evidence, basically independent calorimetry. Imprecise, to be sure, but not a lot of precision is needed to approximate the amount of energy being released from what I’ve called the “room calorimeter.” HVAC engineers know how to estimate temperature rise from power dissipation under various cooling conditions. The limit on temperature rise from the fact that people worked in the plant, without discomfort (or worse), places, then, a limit on Plant power dissipation. Rossi claimed “endothermic process” at first, and then, when he realized this was a seriously losing argument, he then claimed a combination of methods. His original story was that the heat was simply vented through the roof, and apparently did not realize — or hoped his audience would not realize — that this would take duct work and forced air to handle that heat without a huge temperature rise. This is all standard HVAC engineering, and IH will have no difficulty establishing this in court.
The metering was thus designed from the start to inflate the measurement of the output power, though whether the ERV was cognisant of that remains moot.
It is possible that IH found the smoking gun. What could it be? Okay, here is my idea: an air compressor in the customer area, combined with a broken pressure gauge — or simply disconnected, even better, since the gauge, removed, would test as perfect. The air could also be piped from else where, all it would take is a line into the customer area and into the coolant loop. In this idea, the reservoir is open to the air. The air flow through the pipe would turn the vane of the flow meter without water flow.
This procedure could fool Penon if he paid no attention to the room calorimeter — and he apparently told Lewan, do I have it right? — that the “customer area” didn’t matter — which establishes Penon’s incompetence as an engineer for this purpose. Penon’s experience was with nuclear power plants, where “fake” could result in massive damage and loss of life, his training would not even suspect it.
There are many other possibilities. This is the bottom line: to be conclusive, a test must be independent, not merely an observation of a demonstration controlled by the inventor. Rossi was upset, apparently, that the Boeing test was done without his presence. This was classic Rossi, he absolutely wanted to avoid, and avoided for years, independent testing. The major exception was Lugano, which was not actually independent, it was only that Rossi left during the middle, while the “independent professors” sat around and watched paint dry. Who set up the lack of calibration at full input power? Who told them that this might damage the reactor? Who determined the emissivity value to use?
Peter is concentrating on the wrong things, in my opinion. Instead of looking at what effects all that heat should have, and seeing that those effects were not there, he’s looking at trying to prove that the metering was correct in the hope that Rossi will Save The World by producing cheap and non-polluting power.
Seems likely. There is a similar argument advanced by Lewan, who really ought to know better, that it is better to err on the side of supporting Rossi, because it is so important for the energy future of humanity. However, this assumes that the energy future of humanity could not be harmed by fraud. It assumes that if Rossi is not “supported” — by us, the public — that he would be stopped. But Rossi has always claimed that the market is the judge, and if there were a water heater I could buy, powered by Rossi (c), and with a few real and actually satisfied customers, showing “energy amplification” of 6X, I would buy it and many would. Even if everyone on the blogs was yelling at him.
The problem is that Rossi’s strategy (which Lewan seems to grasp) of making himself look like a fraud damages the overall field. I.e., supporting Rossi polarizes what requires consensus: breaking through the rejection logjam. This is why Jed is so pessimistic.
We need honesty and genuine skepticism. We all know that pseudoskepticism is harmful, precisely because it’s fake skepticism, skepticism that forgets to be skeptical of whatever the skeptic believes. If cold fusion is real, genuine skepticism will discover this! Pseudoskepticism relies on inertia and fuzzy pseudoscience, scientism, Cargo Cult Science.
He’s told me that Rossi will have a good explanation for where that heat disappeared to without any evidence of it passing, but until now Rossi has remained silent on that, and has instead stated that the independent customer J-M Products had to deal with the heat and it wasn’t his concern.
Does Mats know this “good explanation”? Rossi has not remained silent, he attempted to answer this issue quite a while ago. Mats is avoiding the obvious. Rossi has been lying to him, and it’s hard for him to see that and admit it. Rossi’s position has been twofold: outwardly, he can’t comment because lawsuit in progress, yatta yatta, but also he then says a lot of crap about “Industrial Heat,” or the “puppets,” often radically distorted (just today I saw one of his socks — probably — claim that they were saying that the flow meter was not proper for the temperature. Has that been said? If so, I’ve missed it). Does Mats read JONP and compare it with known fact?
Mats fell down and failed to investigate, he has not pursued what he declared as his intention. He could recover, and I hope he does.
If there is a good explanation, surely someone who knows it would could leak the information. Rossi cannot keep necessary information from IH discovery, so a idea that he can pull a Wabbit out at trial would be foolish. He’d be sanctioned by the court, which might include a dismissal of his claims.
Peter’s experience as an industrial chemist should have indicated that that amount of steam heat will need to be dissipated after use and won’t just disappear, and also that J-M Products would need to make a profit on their energy costs if they wanted to stay in business – there has to be a valuable product from that much investment. It would be surprising if IH hadn’t got some way of monitoring the Doral site, with so much money at stake, so deliveries and people on site should have been noted. That’s not in evidence at the moment, but it’s a logical thing to do.
Dewey has claimed that IH has massive evidence, not so far revealed. It ‘s plausible. There is no requirement that all the evidence be disclosed in the pleadings, other than enough, in the way of specific allegations, that a motion to dismiss can be avoided. IH’s massive exhibit collection is overkill, legally. However, all this must be known to Rossi by the time discovery is complete, so the lawyers can then see what is a likely outcome at trial and settlement becomes possible, at least if one or more parties are sane. Going to trial with a losing case is insane if it can be avoided.
The court-case will probably go on for a while yet. It seems to me the prospects of Rossi succeeding are pretty slim, and rest on some technical point of law being found that lets him escape.
His case seems legally impossible, from what we have seen. He’s obviously searching for proof of deliberate deception on IH’s side, and it appears to me that his Motion for Rule 11 Sanctions would have included his strongest evidence. What he showed there was terminally weak. It only looked like evidence to someone with paranoid thinking. I doubt that Annesser would have filed this on his own, he’d have to be dumber than he looks. So Rossi is calling the shots, with Annesser being a yes-man, paid for that.
However, the counterclaims are less certain. It still looks fairly solid to me, there are technical details that may not be.
Lawyers are after all pretty good at twisting the meanings of language. On the technical side, though, I can’t see any other conclusion other than that the Doral test failed to produce much excess energy, if any at all. Rossi’s technology does not work as claimed, and may not work at all.
That is, at this point, and in my opinion, a preponderance of the evidence conclusion — which is what civil cases turn on. Peter wants “proof.” Those who demand proof die without it, or death is the ultimate proof.